Addressing the Root Causes of Coups in West Africa: Exploring China’s Role as a Strategic Partner
Executive Summary
This white paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the recent surge in military coups across West Africa, drawing insights from a high-level webinar hosted by the Afro Center of International Relations. The discussion, featuring distinguished experts in Africa-China security relations, explored the complex factors contributing to this “epidemic” of coups, as described by the UN Secretary-General.
The paper examines the historical context, identifies key drivers of instability, and assesses the short-term and long-term implications of these military takeovers. It also evaluates the shifting dynamics of international relations in the region, with a particular focus on China’s potential role as a strategic partner in addressing these challenges.
Key findings highlight the multifaceted nature of the crisis, emphasizing the interplay between economic inequality, governance failures, rising extremism, and the lingering effects of colonial legacies. The paper concludes with a set of nuanced recommendations aimed at fostering sustainable stability and development in West Africa, underscoring the importance of African-led solutions supported by strategic international partnerships.
1. Introduction
The recent wave of military coups in West Africa has sent shockwaves through the international community, raising concerns about the stability and democratic progress of the region. As the continent prepares for the upcoming Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), there is an urgent need to understand the root causes of these upheavals and explore potential solutions.
This white paper synthesizes the insights and recommendations from a panel of experts, including:
• Professor David Shinn: Former U.S. Foreign Service officer with 37 years of experience across Africa
• Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah: Expert in Africa-China security relations from Lingnan University
• Mr. Emeka Ezeze: Former Managing Director of The Guardian, Nigeria
• Professor Zhang Chun: Expert in Sino-African relations from Yunan University
Their collective expertise provides a multifaceted perspective on the challenges facing West Africa and the potential for international cooperation in addressing them.
2. Historical Context and Current Landscape
2.1 Cyclical Nature of Instability
Professor David Shinn emphasized that while the current situation in West Africa is alarming, it is not without historical precedent. The region has experienced similar cycles of instability in the past, often driven by recurring factors such as:
• Economic disparities
• Political power struggles
• Military dissatisfaction with civilian leadership
However, what distinguishes the current wave of coups is the prominent role of extremism, particularly jihadist movements, which was not as significant a factor in earlier decades.
2.2 The Rise of Extremism
Mr. Emeka Ezeze highlighted the rapid spread of extremist ideologies across the continent. By 2017, at least 14 ISIS-affiliated sites were identified across Africa, marking a significant escalation in the threat landscape. This rise in extremism has added a dangerous new dimension to the region’s instability, often serving as a justification for military interventions in the name of restoring security.
2.3 Governance Failures and Democratic Disillusionment
A common thread identified by the panelists was the failure of democratic systems to deliver tangible improvements for the population. Mr. Ezeze noted that many of the affected countries rank among the poorest in Africa, leading to widespread disillusionment, especially among the youth. This failure of governance has contributed to:
• Increased emigration, with many risking their lives to cross the Mediterranean
• A perception of military rule as a viable alternative to ineffective civilian governments
• Contested elections and lack of accountability among elected leaders.
2.4 Post-Colonial Influences
The discussion also touched on the continuing influence of former colonial powers, particularly in francophone countries. This lingering post-colonial dynamic complicates the political landscape and needs to be addressed for meaningful progress to be made.
3. Root Causes and Contributing Factors
3.1 The Three Deficits
Professor Zhang Chun identified three critical deficits contributing to the current instability:
1. Development Deficit: Persistent economic underperformance and lack of opportunities
2. Security Deficit: Failure of governments to provide basic safety and stability
3. Independence Deficit: Ongoing influence of former colonial powers and external actors
These interrelated factors create a perfect storm of conditions conducive to military takeovers and popular support for such actions.
3.2 Failure of Democratic Institutions
The panelists agreed that a key driver of instability is the perceived failure of democratic systems to address the needs of the population. This manifests in several ways:
• Lack of economic progress and job creation
• Corruption and mismanagement of resources
• Inability to counter the spread of extremism effectively
3.3 Military Dynamics
Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah noted that many recent coups have been led by young military officers, reminiscent of the early post-independence period in Africa. This trend reflects:
• Frustration within military ranks over poor equipment and support
• Ideological shifts among younger officers
• The potential for a “contagion effect,” where successful coups in one country embolden military figures in others
3.4 Regional and Global Factors
The experts highlighted several broader factors contributing to the instability:
• Spillover effects from conflicts in neighboring countries
• Global economic pressures and commodity price fluctuations
• Shifting geopolitical alliances and competition among global powers.
4. Implications and Consequences
4.1 Short-term Impacts
Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah outlined the immediate consequences of military takeovers:
• Economic disruption and suspension of foreign aid
• Freezing of assets and international sanctions
• Breakdown of democratic processes and institutions
4.2 Long-term Consequences
Professor Zhang expressed concern about the long-term implications of recurring coups:
• Erosion of trust in democratic governance
• Diversion of resources from development to security
• Potential for creating a self-perpetuating cycle of instability
• Risk of normalizing military interventions as a means of political change.
4.3 Regional Stability
The panelists noted that the concentration of coups in West Africa and the Sahel could have broader implications for continental stability. However, they also observed that some regions, such as Southern Africa, have remained relatively stable, suggesting the need for further research into regional variations in governance and stability.
5. The Changing Landscape of International Relations
5.1 Shift in Alliances
Dr. Prah highlighted a notable shift in international alignments following recent coups:
• Growing anti-Western sentiment, particularly anti-French feelings in francophone countries
• Increased visibility of Russian influence, as evidenced by displays of Russian flags in some countries
• Pragmatic pivot by coup leaders towards powers perceived as more sympathetic to their cause
5.2 China’s Growing Role
The experts discussed China’s increasing presence in West Africa, noting several key aspects:
• Focus on economic investments, diplomacy, and soft power
• Alignment with Africa’s development needs, particularly in infrastructure and industrialization
• Challenges related to debt risks and the need for sustainable investment models
5.3 Western Involvement
The panelists compared different approaches to engagement in the region:
• U.S. and French focus on direct military involvement and counter-terrorism operations
• China’s preference for financial aid, intelligence sharing, and training support
• The need for a more balanced approach that addresses both security and development concerns
6. Recommendations
Based on the discussions, the following recommendations are proposed:
6.1 African-led Solutions
• Empower regional organizations like ECOWAS to take the lead in addressing instability
• Foster collaboration among African nations to develop context-specific solutions
• Strengthen the capacity of African institutions to manage international partnerships effectively
6.2 Addressing Root Causes
• Prioritize economic development and job creation, particularly for the youth
• Invest in education and skill development to build human capital
• Implement governance reforms to enhance transparency and accountability
6.3 Security Sector Reform
• Professionalize military forces and strengthen civilian oversight
• Improve coordination between military and civilian leadership
• Develop comprehensive strategies to counter extremism that go beyond military solutions
6.4 International Partnerships
• Encourage China to leverage its economic influence for promoting stability
• Develop more equitable models of partnership that support both security and development
• Facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity building in areas such as technology and infrastructure
6.5 Regional Cooperation
• Strengthen regional mechanisms for early warning and conflict prevention
• Enhance cross-border cooperation on security and economic issues
• Develop regional strategies for countering extremism and promoting stability
6.6 Governance and Institution Building
• Invest in strengthening democratic institutions and processes
• Promote inclusive governance that addresses the needs of marginalized groups
• Foster a culture of political dialogue and peaceful transitions of power
6.7 Economic Diversification and Integration
• Support efforts to diversify economies and reduce dependence on primary commodities
• Promote regional economic integration to create larger markets and opportunities
• Invest in critical infrastructure to facilitate trade and economic growth
6.8 Engagement with Civil Society and Academia
• Bridge the gap between academic research and policymaking
• Support civil society organizations in their role as watchdogs and advocates for good governance
• Encourage public dialogue on issues of governance, security, and development
7. Conclusion
The recent surge of coups in West Africa represents a complex challenge that requires a multifaceted and nuanced approach. While the situation is indeed concerning, it also presents an opportunity for renewed engagement and innovative solutions. As the continent prepares for the upcoming Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), there is a unique opportunity to reframe the discussion around security and development in West Africa. China’s growing role in the region, coupled with its distinct approach to international partnerships, could potentially offer new avenues for addressing the root causes of instability.However, the experts unanimously emphasized that any lasting solutions must be African-led and contextualized to the specific needs of each country and the region as a whole. International partners, including China, can play a crucial supporting role, but ultimate responsibility and agency must rest with African governments and regional organizations. By addressing the underlying issues of economic inequality, poor governance, and security challenges, while also strengthening institutions and fostering regional cooperation, West Africa can chart a path towards greater stability and prosperity. This will require sustained commitment, innovative thinking, and genuine partnership between African nations and the international community. The road ahead is challenging, but with concerted effort and strategic cooperation, it is possible to break the cycle of coups and build a more stable, democratic, and prosperous future for West Africa.